![]() The Global SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance Project: Policy, Persistence, & Transmission provides surveillance data based on these WB-defined regions. The World Bank (WB), a global partnership dedicated to reducing poverty and increasing sustainable prosperity in developing nations, divides the world into regions based on shared geographical, development, and cultural or historical features. Collectively, 33,534,153 COVID-19 cases have been reported in the EU and the United Kingdom, which have resulted in 740,733 deaths. ![]() As of February 9, 2021, the WHO reported 106,125,682 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 2,320,497 deaths worldwide. Nations worldwide are struggling to control COVID-19 transmission by imposing social isolation and economic restrictions, with leaders reluctant to shut down businesses and quarantine citizens again. The WHO has warned that the death counts in Europe could surpass the peak observed in April 2020. Īt present, European countries are experiencing a second wave of COVID-19. COVID-19 caseloads decreased for most European countries after peaking in April and May. Although the EU coordinated the COVID-19 response between member countries, individual governments enacted separate national policies and made individual decisions regarding border closure and quarantine measures. ![]() The European Union (EU) closed all external borders on Ma. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the spread of the novel coronavirus had exceeded the threshold of a pandemic and, on March 13, 2020, the WHO declared Europe as the global epicenter, when their caseload and deaths exceeded the combined caseload in the rest of the world (See Figure 1). The first European COVID-19 case was reported on January 24, 2020, in France, with subsequent cases confirmed in Germany and Finland days later. ![]() JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021 7(4):e25695 These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to –0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (–1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000).Ĭonclusions: The United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Methods: We performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. Objective: This study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. JMIR Bioinformatics and Biotechnology 12 articlesīuehler Center for Health Policy and EconomicsĮmail: The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country.JMIR Biomedical Engineering 58 articles.JMIR Perioperative Medicine 61 articles.Journal of Participatory Medicine 68 articles.JMIR Rehabilitation and Assistive Technologies 164 articles.JMIR Pediatrics and Parenting 221 articles.Interactive Journal of Medical Research 236 articles.JMIR Public Health and Surveillance 915 articles.Journal of Medical Internet Research 6701 articles.
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